Weekly Technical Analysis (week ending 17th Feb, 2006)

Indian MarketOne more week of volatility and we"blood bath" and indices may just roll south.US
ended the speculation in the "red". This wasMarketDow finally made new highs. This time Nasdaq
expected, because 10K is always a huge number anddid not really help much and it hardly gained any pace
bigger round number than any other. If you see thelast week. There were a few good and few bad
performance of DOW Jones(USA), that too hoverednews. One of the bad news being US Budget deficit
around the 10K mark for a little while before actuallyclimbed to the highest levels ever and it does not
breaking it off and moving ahead. That doesn'tseem to be taking any breaks. The average savings
necessarily imply that BSE will behave the same way.rate has been the lowest(in negative) ever in the
But a big road block is a road block for sure. Withcountry, because everyone is just about spending
Budget session just around the corner, it is fair toand nobody really saving. This is definitely not good
assume that this kind of volatility will continue forfor the longer term.Technically, We have a clear
some time.Technically, BSE dangerously close tobreakout on our hands. But as you can see, the
forming lots of negatives. MACD negative divergencetrendlines are pretty narrow and unless we break the
leads to either minor or major corrections. Similarly,upper one, it may serve as a resistance. As we
MACD crossover. Most importantly, as you can seementioned in our analysis a couple of weeks back,
from the chart below, We are so close to the lowerthe lower trendline did in fact give good support and
support channel/trendline that we can hardly affordDOW has been climbing up ever since. MACD seems
to go down. Even if we do, we should recoverto be supporting this cause and has clearly moved
pretty soon. Otherwise, it would be a nasty one. Ifabove zero line. Next week will be crucial one as we
you look closely at the two trendlines, upper onedid NOT have 2 weeks above 11K in the recent
being the resistance and the lower one beingpast.Complete NewsletterJohn Drass has been dealing
support, both of them are narrowing down as time isstocks for over 10 years and has over 7 years
passing by. This is extremely bearish forExperience in Technical analysis. John has contributed
medium-to-long term. Why? Because, the scope ofarticles and his know-how to various newspapers,
the index going down is very very limited and if itwebsites and organizations across the world.
does break the support line, then we could see a